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Managing International Risk: the Art of Prevoir

Reading time: 6 minutes

18 Feb
18/02/2015
Foto del profilo di Olga Annushkina

by Olga Annushkina

SDA Professor of Strategic and Entrepreneurial Management

International markets expose firms to an ample variety of risks, comprising the currency exchange rate fluctuations. In the past two months many firms had to deal with a number of “surprises” that confirmed the two mantras of the expert scenario planners: one cannot “cheat” forever the laws of economics and the unsustainable trends will reverse, at a certain point.

It is certainly easy to discuss and interpret the past events and fish out the “early warnings” that could have indicated to us the Russian Rouble’s plunge against most of the world currencies, the Swiss franc’s appreciation and the Euro’s decline against the US Dollar. But the ability to read between the lines and to imagine the key possible scenarios of the macroeconomic, social and political context evolution is the starting point for any manager or entrepreneur.

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